地缘政治动荡搅动国际油价

Core Viewpoint - The global oil market is experiencing significant volatility due to geopolitical tensions, particularly affecting oil exports from Iran and Venezuela, while Russia's production has rebounded despite ongoing challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Supply Dynamics - Iranian crude oil loading has decreased by 350,000 barrels per day from the peak in October 2025, maintaining around 1.6 million barrels per day in November and December 2025, with substantial amounts of crude oil still at sea [1]. - Venezuelan oil exports plummeted from 880,000 barrels per day in December 2025 to approximately 300,000 barrels per day in early January 2026 due to U.S. sanctions affecting oil tankers [1]. - Russia's oil production increased by 550,000 barrels per day in December 2025, reaching its highest level in nearly 33 months, despite ongoing attacks on its energy infrastructure [1]. - The total revenue from Russian oil and gas was approximately $5.71 billion in December 2025, a year-on-year decline of 43.3% [1]. - The report predicts that global oil supply could increase by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching 108.7 million barrels per day, with non-OPEC countries contributing 1.3 million barrels per day [3]. Group 2: Oil Inventory and Refining Capacity - Global observable oil inventories increased by 470 million barrels in 2025, averaging an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day, with significant growth in floating storage and inventories in China and the U.S. [4]. - In November 2025 alone, global observable oil inventories surged by 75.3 million barrels, with crude oil accounting for 96% of the increase [4]. - Global refining capacity saw a spike of 2 million barrels per day in December 2025, reaching a peak of 85.7 million barrels per day, with an expected average of 84.6 million barrels per day in 2026 [4]. Group 3: Oil Demand Trends - The International Energy Agency forecasts a global oil demand increase of 930,000 barrels per day in 2026, up from 850,000 barrels per day in 2025, primarily driven by non-OECD countries [5]. - The demand growth reflects market adaptation and recovery following the impact of U.S. tariffs in 2025, as well as a response to the decline in international oil prices [5].