若沃什当选主席，美联储将“以降息换缩表”？

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has shifted the debate from short-term interest rates to the Fed's $6.6 trillion balance sheet, with expectations that he may take swift action to reduce asset size, impacting long-term interest rates and market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Warsh's Critique and Policy Implications - Warsh has been a vocal critic of the Fed's balance sheet expansion, suggesting that it has led to excessive risk-taking in financial markets and increased reliance on central bank support [4][5]. - He advocates for a new Treasury-Fed agreement to redefine their relationship, similar to the 1951 agreement, to clarify the Fed's balance sheet goals [4][5]. - If Warsh's policies are implemented, they could lead to a tightening of financial conditions, potentially allowing the Fed to lower benchmark interest rates further [2][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Challenges - The speculation around Warsh's potential actions has already led to an increase in long-term U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, while gold and silver prices have fallen [1]. - The challenge of managing the market increases as U.S. debt surpasses $30 trillion, with the need for the Treasury and other agencies to engage more in market management [2]. - The Fed's balance sheet, which has grown significantly since the financial crisis and during the COVID-19 pandemic, poses a challenge for Warsh if confirmed, as it is much larger than during his previous tenure [3][5]. Group 3: Financial Market Sensitivity - The financial markets are highly sensitive to liquidity changes, as evidenced by the 2019 funding pressures that led the Fed to intervene [7]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed's definition of "adequate" reserves may allow for some flexibility, but any significant reduction in the balance sheet could lead to increased borrowing costs and volatility [8][9]. - The current framework of "adequate" reserves is unlikely to change in the short term, but the addition of a more hawkish member like Warsh could influence future asset purchase policies [9].