存储“超级周期”来了， 涨价持续到何时？

Core Viewpoint - The global storage market is expected to enter a price increase phase starting from Q3 2025, driven by structural supply-demand imbalances due to the AI wave, with significant price hikes projected for NAND flash and DRAM products [1][2]. Group 1: Price Increase Drivers - The primary driver of the price increase is a structural supply-demand imbalance caused by AI, leading to a surge in memory demand for AI servers, which is 8-10 times that of regular servers, thereby squeezing supply for consumer products [1]. - Major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix are shifting over 80% of their advanced production capacity to high-margin HBM, resulting in a reduction of mature capacity [1]. - TrendForce predicts that by 2025, the average inventory cycle for the DRAM industry will drop to 10 weeks, with original factory inventory at a critically low level of 2-4 weeks [1]. Group 2: Duration of Price Trends - The storage industry is anticipated to experience a "super cycle" lasting 2-3 years, as capacity release lags behind demand growth [2]. - TrendForce forecasts that in Q1 2026, contract prices for general DRAM will increase by 55%-60%, while NAND flash products will see a rise of 33%-38% [2]. - Citigroup expects average selling prices for DRAM and flash products to rise by 88% and 74%, respectively, surpassing previous estimates [2]. Group 3: Impact on Downstream Industries - The consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and cloud computing sectors will be significantly affected by the storage price increases [3]. - In consumer electronics, the proportion of storage costs in the BOM is expected to rise from 20% to over 30%, leading to price increases for laptops by 500-1500 yuan [3]. - The automotive sector anticipates a 50% price increase for automotive-grade DDR4, with companies like Xiaomi and NIO highlighting the substantial cost pressures from rising memory prices [3]. Group 4: Opportunities for Domestic Storage Companies - Domestic storage companies such as Changxin Technology and Yangtze Memory are expected to benefit from the market space left by overseas manufacturers focusing on high-end products [5]. - Companies involved in equipment and materials are also likely to gain from the expansion needs of storage manufacturers, with firms like Baiwei Storage and Demingli projecting significant performance improvements in 2025 [5]. Group 5: Recommendations for Consumers and Investors - For consumers with rigid demand, early purchases are advised to avoid further cost increases, while non-essential purchases can be delayed [6]. - Investors should focus on core segments of the storage industry chain, including upstream equipment materials and midstream IDM manufacturers, considering the technological strength and capacity release pace of companies [6].