原油周报：原油站在地缘与基本面的十字路口

Market Overview - The recent oil market has experienced significant volatility, with prices showing both sharp increases and declines throughout the week, indicating a certain level of fragility in the current pricing environment [5][42] - Reports at the beginning of the year suggested that 2026 would be a year of oversupply, with fundamental price estimates around WTI $60 per barrel, but geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, have introduced uncertainty [5][42] - The market reacted to news of potential Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz, which temporarily drove prices up before a pullback due to broader market conditions [5][42] Price Data - As of January 30, 2026, Brent crude futures settled at $70.69 per barrel, up $4.81 (+7.3%) from the previous week; WTI crude futures settled at $65.21 per barrel, up $4.14 (+6.78%); Dubai crude futures settled at $67.86 per barrel, up $4.05 (+6.35%) [6][43] - The price movements were influenced by increased liquidity in the market due to rising gold prices and heightened geopolitical risk premiums related to US-Iran tensions [9][43] EIA Data Analysis - The EIA reported a significant decrease in crude oil inventories, with a reduction of 2.295 million barrels; production slightly declined to 13.696 million barrels per day, while imports fell by 805,000 barrels per day and exports increased by 901,000 barrels per day, leading to a net import decrease [6][24][57] - Despite the decrease in supply, downstream refined product demand remains weak, particularly outside of gasoline, indicating a mixed outlook for the oil market [6][24][57] Terminal Demand - US highway transportation activity has shown typical seasonal adjustments, with a decrease in freight volume and capacity following the peak season, indicating limited potential demand decline [30][62] - The overall transportation situation has stabilized, although winter weather poses short-term challenges [30][62] Domestic Refinery Operations - Refinery utilization rates decreased by 2.4% to 90.90%, remaining above historical averages, indicating stable operations despite the slight decline [25][59] - The processing margins for major refineries were reported at 659.83 CNY per ton, while independent refineries saw a significant drop in profitability, down 34.75% from the previous week [35][59]