【悠哉油斋】宏观扰动增加，油脂波动加剧

Group 1 - The oilseed market experienced a volatile week, initially rising due to macroeconomic factors but later declining as fundamental support weakened [3][11] - The recent surge in oilseed prices was driven by a favorable macro environment, including a drop in the US dollar index and geopolitical tensions, but this rapid increase is seen as unsustainable [3][12] - The US biodiesel policy is becoming clearer, providing some bullish sentiment for the oilseed market, with the 45Z tax credit plan expected to be announced soon [4][12] Group 2 - Despite a positive macro backdrop, the rapid price increase in oilseeds has outpaced fundamental support, leading to increased volatility risks [4][12] - Palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to decrease, with estimates showing a reduction of 14.43% to 14.81% in early January, but the overall production remains historically high [5][13] - The palm oil market is facing pressure from high inventory levels and a lack of significant export growth, with January exports projected to be around 1.4 million tons [5][13] Group 3 - The Indonesian CPO reference price is expected to rise, potentially exceeding $930 per ton, which may lead to increased export taxes and support for palm oil prices [7][15] - The recent bullish trend in oilseeds is at risk of reversal due to the lack of substantial developments in US biodiesel policy and high palm oil inventories [7][15] - The market anticipates that the upcoming Ramadan and increased biodiesel policy news may provide support for oilseed prices in the medium to long term, with key support levels identified for soybean and palm oil [7][15]