【菜系周报】菜籽压榨恢复，关注榨利兑现

Core Viewpoint - The macro sentiment is strong, driving the oil and meal prices upward, but there is a divergence in the market as the sentiment retracts and Australian canola successfully enters the market, leading to a significant pullback in canola meal prices [3][17]. Group 1: Canola Import and Market Dynamics - China has been actively purchasing additional canola, with at least 10 ships confirmed and optimistic expectations of up to 15 ships, translating to an average monthly import of around 5 ships or over 300,000 tons from March to May [4][18]. - Despite the increase in imports, the ICE canola market has shown limited rebound, with the main contract hovering around 650 CAD/ton, and cumulative exports are still down over 35% year-on-year, indicating potential supply pressure from abroad [4][18]. Group 2: Oilseed Market Trends - The oilseed market is currently experiencing a combination of "high import crush margins" and "strong biodiesel expectations," with the AAFC raising the export forecast for the 2025/26 canola season to 8.2 million tons, a 200,000-ton increase [7][23]. - The expected crush margin for imported canola is projected to remain above 350 CNY/ton, which is favorable compared to historical levels, suggesting a potential return to normal levels [7][23]. Group 3: Future Outlook on Crushing Margins - There is a need to monitor the difference between the board crush margins and the spot crush margins, as the supply of canola remains relatively limited in the near term, which may keep spot margins higher than board margins [13][27]. - The expectation is that as canola crushing resumes, there may be downward pressure on price spreads between March and May, but strong spot basis quotes could limit the extent of this decline [13][27]. Group 4: Market Valuation and Strategy - The valuation of oilseeds is expected to fluctuate based on the dynamics of Australian and additional canola crush margins, with the market sentiment primarily influenced by macroeconomic changes [15][29]. - The recommendation is to avoid chasing higher prices in the oilseed meal market on a weekly basis and to wait for a potential pullback in oil prices before increasing allocations to oilseed meal [15][29].