【财经分析】新券上市“涨声”不断 可转债市场开年演绎结构性行情

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the convertible bond market, particularly the strong performance of new bonds, is attributed to changes in market supply-demand dynamics, shifts in capital allocation preferences, and the unique characteristics of the new bonds [1][6]. Group 1: Performance of New Bonds - The new convertible bonds launched in January 2026 have shown remarkable performance, with an average first-day increase of 57.3% and a turnover rate exceeding 200% on some days [1][2]. - All new bonds listed in January maintained prices above 150 yuan, with the "Lianrui Convertible Bond" being a standout, doubling in price within three trading days and closing at 226.512 yuan on January 30 [3][4]. - The average conversion premium for these new bonds is notably high, with "Lianrui Convertible Bond" at 115.52% and "Jin 05 Convertible Bond" at 103.15%, indicating strong market enthusiasm [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The convertible bond market is experiencing a supply shortage, with an estimated 1,600 billion yuan of bonds expected to exit the market in 2026, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [6]. - The low interest rate environment has increased demand for yield-enhancing assets, further supporting the convertible bond market's high valuation [7]. - New bonds are characterized by a lack of strong redemption pressure and good liquidity, which, combined with their association with technology and innovation sectors, enhances their appeal [7][8]. Group 3: Investment Focus - Investors are advised to focus on convertible bonds with strong fundamental support, particularly those in the technology and high-end manufacturing sectors, which align with current market investment themes [5][8]. - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic, but there is a caution regarding the high valuations of new bonds, as potential corrections in the stock market could impact both stock and bond valuations [8][9]. - Future supply changes are anticipated, with a projected issuance of around 600 billion yuan in convertible bonds for 2026, which will be critical in assessing the sustainability of current valuation levels [9].