标普预计2026年中国服务消费增长5.5%，消费需求加速释放

Core Insights - The article highlights the expected growth in retail sales in China driven by the "trade-in" policy, with significant increases in various sectors such as home appliances, kitchenware, and communication devices by 2025 [1][4] - The analysis indicates a notable rise in consumer demand, particularly in rural areas, with a projected 64% increase in appliance orders and a 38% increase in user numbers in towns and below by 2025 [1] - Standard & Poor's Global forecasts a 2.7% growth in China's retail sales and a 5.5% increase in service consumption by 2026, reflecting a cautious consumer sentiment towards large purchases [1] Retail Sector - The retail sales in the home appliance sector, including refrigerators, are expected to grow by 17.4% in 2025, while kitchenware and communication devices are projected to increase by 12.9% and 18.6%, respectively [1] - The "trade-in" initiative is significantly boosting consumption in rural areas, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and demand patterns [1] Economic Indicators - According to the World Bank, consumer spending in China is projected to account for 56.6% of the economy in 2024, an increase from 49.4% in 2010, highlighting a positive trend in domestic consumption [4] - Comparatively, consumer spending in the U.S. is at 82.9%, the U.K. at 81.7%, and Japan at 74.7%, indicating room for growth in China's consumer market [4] Consumer Confidence - Allianz's Chief Investment Officer emphasizes the need to restore consumer confidence and reduce high savings rates to stimulate household consumption [4] - It is estimated that if disposable income as a percentage of GDP in China increases from 58% to the levels of advanced economies (70%-75%), private consumption could potentially boost GDP by approximately 10 percentage points [4]