智通财经网·2026-02-02 01:21Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that after a significant market surge in 2025, the momentum for the prices of non-ferrous metals and stocks remains strong, supported by supply disruptions, localized high demand, and inventory accumulation, with liquidity easing and geopolitical tensions likely amplifying price elasticity for metals [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Price Trends - In 2025, the CITIC non-ferrous metal sector index increased by 98.6%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 77.4 percentage points [1] - The leading segments included tungsten (+144.8%), nickel, cobalt, tin, and antimony (+130.7%), and copper (+123.9%) [1] - Precious metals showed the most significant price increases, with average prices for gold and silver in 2025 rising over 70% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply disruptions in the metal industry are expected to become more frequent and severe, with significant price increases for cobalt, tin, lithium, copper, and nickel due to these disturbances [2] - Structural demand resilience remains strong despite potential weaknesses in sectors like real estate and home appliances, with high demand expected in areas such as power grid investment, energy storage batteries, and AI servers [2] - Inventory accumulation driven by trade disputes is expected to amplify demand for copper, lithium, and rare earths, leading to price increases [2] Group 3: Trading Activity and Geopolitical Impact - The report anticipates that global liquidity will remain loose in 2026, with increased trading activity in precious metals likely leading to unexpected price surges for silver, copper, tin, and lithium carbonate [3] - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts are expected to elevate risk aversion, driving up prices for precious metals and extending to other non-ferrous metals like copper, rare earths, tungsten, and natural uranium [3] Group 4: Price Outlook for Major Metals in 2026 - Precious metals are expected to benefit from monetary attributes and sustained risk aversion, with gold projected to reach $6,000 per ounce and silver potentially rising to $120 per ounce due to extreme shortages and trading enthusiasm [4] - Supply constraints and resilient demand are expected to support strong price performance for copper and aluminum, with average prices projected at $12,000 per ton and 23,000 yuan per ton, respectively [4] - Battery metals like lithium are anticipated to rise to a price range of 120,000 to 200,000 yuan per ton, while cobalt prices are expected to be between 400,000 and 500,000 yuan per ton due to quota reductions [4] - Other metals such as rare earths, tungsten, tin, and natural uranium are expected to continue benefiting from supply-demand tightness, with price targets of 600,000 to 800,000 yuan per ton, 450,000 to 550,000 yuan per ton, 450,000 to 500,000 yuan per ton, and $100 per pound, respectively [4]