Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-02-02 01:33Core Viewpoint - The metal market is expected to enter a premium era in 2026, supported by strong price momentum from supply disruptions, localized high demand, and inventory accumulation, alongside increased trading activity due to loose liquidity and heightened geopolitical tensions [1][7]. Group 1: 2025 Market Performance - In 2025, the non-ferrous metal sector index rose by 98.6%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 77.4 percentage points [2]. - Key segments leading the gains included tungsten (+144.8%), nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony (+130.7%), and copper (+123.9%) [2]. - Precious metals saw significant price increases, with gold and silver averaging over 70% higher year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply disruptions in the metal industry are becoming more frequent and severe, with cobalt, tin, lithium, copper, and nickel prices significantly impacted [3][11]. - Factors such as resource depletion, insufficient investment, and resource nationalism contribute to a long-term normalization of supply constraints [3][11]. - Despite potential weaknesses in demand from sectors like real estate and home appliances, strong demand is expected from electric grid investments, energy storage batteries, and AI servers [3][11]. Group 3: Trading Activity and Price Elasticity - Increased trading activity is anticipated to amplify price elasticity, with precious metals reaching new highs and benefiting from heightened investor interest [4][12]. - Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, leading to increased risk aversion and price premiums across various metals, including copper, rare earths, tungsten, and natural uranium [4][12]. Group 4: Price Outlook for Major Metals in 2026 - Precious metals are expected to benefit from monetary attributes and risk aversion, with gold projected to reach $6,000 per ounce and silver potentially hitting $120 per ounce [5][12]. - Copper and aluminum prices are forecasted to average $12,000 per ton and 23,000 yuan per ton, respectively, supported by supply constraints and resilient demand [5][12]. - Lithium prices are expected to rise to 120,000-200,000 yuan per ton due to strong demand from energy storage, while cobalt and nickel prices are also projected to increase significantly [5][12].