开源证券：1月新能源车销量承压 继续看好高端化、出海方向

Group 1 - The domestic passenger car market is expected to remain flat year-on-year in January 2026, but show a significant month-on-month decline, with new energy vehicle (NEV) sales under pressure, leading to a penetration rate of approximately 44.4% [1] - January is the last complete sales month before the Spring Festival, with retail sales expected to reach 1.8 million units, averaging 58,000 units per day, which is flat year-on-year but shows a notable month-on-month decline [1] - The sales performance varies significantly among brands, with some achieving high growth due to popular models, while others face challenges, particularly in the pure NEV segment [2] Group 2 - Brands with popular models, such as AITO and Xiaomi, have seen significant year-on-year sales growth, with AITO's sales reaching 58,000 units (+65.6%) and Xiaomi's at 39,000 units (+70%) [2] - Traditional fuel vehicles provide short-term support for some brands, with GAC Group, Great Wall Motors, and SAIC GM showing year-on-year sales growth of 18.5%, 11.6%, and 8.2% respectively [2] - The industry outlook for 2026 is optimistic regarding high-end development and overseas market expansion, with key players setting ambitious overseas sales targets [3]