光大期货：2月2日能源化工日报

Group 1 - Oil prices experienced fluctuations, with WTI March contract closing at $65.21 per barrel, a monthly increase of 14.51%, and Brent March contract at $70.69 per barrel, up 14.64% [2][41] - The overall trend in January showed a decline followed by a rebound, driven by geopolitical factors [2][41] - Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran remain a significant concern, with any diplomatic breakthroughs appearing unlikely [3][4] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a surplus in the global oil market this year, with supply exceeding demand by 3.85 million barrels per day, approximately 4% of global demand [5] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has adjusted its forecast for 2026 demand growth down by 90,000 barrels to 1.14 million barrels per day [5] - US crude oil production has decreased to 13.7 million barrels per day, with expectations of further declines in the coming weeks [5] Group 3 - Extreme weather events have significantly impacted US oil production, causing a temporary 15% drop in output and leading to price volatility [4] - The market is sensitive to supply disruptions, with risk premiums of $3 to $8 per barrel due to potential interruptions [4] - Current US crude oil inventories stand at 838.753 million barrels, with commercial stocks at 423.754 million barrels, reflecting a 2.08% increase year-on-year [5] Group 4 - The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil from Iran is expected to decrease, with January shipments estimated at 900,000 tons, down 300,000 tons month-on-month [7] - Demand for high-sulfur fuel oil in China is anticipated to increase significantly, with expected imports of 100,000 tons in January and 105,000 tons in February [7] - The geopolitical situation in Iran continues to influence oil supply dynamics, with recent disruptions affecting shipping volumes [8] Group 5 - The overall sentiment in the oil market is mixed, with geopolitical uncertainties providing some support for prices while high inventories limit upward movement [6][8] - The market is expected to remain volatile, with short-term fluctuations driven by geopolitical developments and supply-demand dynamics [6][8]