光大期货：2月2日软商品日报

Group 1: Sugar Market Overview - In January, raw sugar prices fluctuated mainly between 14.5-15 cents per pound. A report from Green Pool forecasts a global sugar surplus of 156,000 tons for the 2026/27 season, down from 2.74 million tons in 2025/26, primarily due to a decrease in sugar production. Global sugar production is expected to decline from 197.5 million tons in 2025/26 to 195.91 million tons in 2026/27, while consumption is projected to increase by 0.5% from 193.73 million tons to 194.72 million tons [3][12][14]. Group 2: Domestic Sugar Prices - In China, the Guangxi Sugar Group quoted prices between 5,290-5,370 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton from the beginning of the month. The Yunnan Sugar Group's prices ranged from 5,150-5,220 yuan per ton. The estimated import price for quota imports is 4,030-4,050 yuan per ton, remaining stable since early January, while the price for non-quota imports is estimated at 5,100-5,140 yuan per ton [12][13]. Group 3: Sugar Imports - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 188,500 tons year-on-year. Cumulatively, China imported 4.9188 million tons of sugar in 2025, up by 562,200 tons year-on-year. By the end of December 2025/26 season, cumulative sugar imports reached 1.7635 million tons, an increase of 301,700 tons year-on-year [13]. Group 4: Syrup and Premix Powder Imports - In December, the total imports of syrup and premix powder amounted to 69,700 tons, a decrease of 120,800 tons year-on-year. For the entire year of 2025, imports of syrup and premix powder totaled 1.1888 million tons, down by 1.1879 million tons year-on-year. By the end of December 2025/26 season, imports of syrup and premix powder totaled 299,600 tons, a decrease of 339,500 tons year-on-year [14]. Group 5: Domestic Production Insights - In January, sugar production in Guangxi and Yunnan was steadily progressing, with production estimates for Guangxi remaining at 6.8-7 million tons. The market sentiment is cautious due to expectations of reduced imports and macroeconomic improvements. February is expected to see a slowdown in spot transactions due to the Spring Festival, with market sentiment remaining cautious [15][16].