光大期货：2月2日矿钢煤焦日报

Demand - In 2025, national fixed asset investment is expected to decrease by 3.8% year-on-year, with a widening decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to January-November [18][19] - Manufacturing investment is projected to grow by 0.6% year-on-year, a slowdown of 1.3 percentage points from January-November [18] - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to decline by 2.2%, with a 1.1 percentage point increase in the rate of decline compared to January-November [18] - Real estate development investment is expected to drop by 17.2% year-on-year, with a 1.3 percentage point increase in the decline rate compared to January-November [18] - January average weekly demand for rebar is 1.82 million tons, down 12% month-on-month, while hot-rolled coil demand is 3.11 million tons, up 1% month-on-month [18][19] - February demand is expected to stagnate due to the Spring Festival holiday [18][19] Supply - In 2025, China's crude steel production is projected to be 961 million tons, a decrease of 44.22 million tons or 4.4% year-on-year [19] - Pig iron production is expected to be 836 million tons, down 25.86 million tons or 3% year-on-year [19] - January production saw a slight rebound, with molten iron production increasing by 0.55 million tons [19] - February is expected to see stable production for long-process steel mills, while electric arc furnace plants will gradually shut down for the holiday [19] Inventory - In January, inventory of the five major steel products increased by 463,600 tons, with rebar inventory rising by 535,000 tons and hot-rolled coil inventory decreasing by 153,800 tons [19] - Total inventory of the five products increased by 1.4615 million tons year-on-year [19] - February is expected to see accelerated inventory accumulation due to stagnant demand and high production levels [19] Exports - In December 2025, China exported 11.301 million tons of steel, an increase of 1.321 million tons or 13.2% month-on-month [20] - Cumulative steel exports for 2025 reached 119.019 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [20] - The implementation of the steel product export license management system from January 1, 2026, may lead to a noticeable decline in export volumes in January and February [20] Costs - In January, iron ore prices fluctuated, while coke prices saw an initial increase followed by a decline, leading to a slight narrowing of profits for long-process steel mills and an expansion of losses for short-process mills [20] - The profit margin for 247 steel mills is currently at 39.39%, with raw material replenishment nearing completion [20] Summary - The steel market in January was characterized by weak demand and insufficient driving forces, leading to narrow price fluctuations [21] - February is expected to see increased supply pressure due to stagnant demand and high production levels, with inventory accumulation expected to accelerate [21] - The overall market sentiment remains somewhat positive due to a strong atmosphere for price increases in the commodity market [21]