欧元短期震荡偏强 政策与经济数据成关键变量

Core Viewpoint - The euro is experiencing a phase of recovery against major currencies, influenced by fluctuations in the US dollar index and marginal improvements in eurozone economic data, with upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decisions being a critical factor for the euro's mid-term direction [1] Economic Fundamentals - The eurozone economy is showing signs of overall recovery with internal differentiation, as evidenced by positive quarterly GDP growth and an increase in economic sentiment indices, particularly in manufacturing, services, and construction sectors [2] - The eurozone's composite PMI remains above the expansion threshold, although slightly below market expectations, with manufacturing PMI showing a minor recovery but still in contraction territory, while service sector expansion is slowing [2] - There is a divergence in performance among member states, with Germany's composite PMI showing stronger expansion compared to France, where the service sector PMI has fallen into contraction [2] Policy Impact - The ECB's monetary policy direction is a key variable affecting the euro's exchange rate, with market focus on the upcoming interest rate decision and the potential for a cautious policy signal to provide temporary support for the euro [3] - If the ECB signals a clear easing stance or lowers economic and inflation expectations, it could suppress the euro's upward potential [3] - A strong euro could negatively impact regional inflation levels and GDP growth, presenting a balancing challenge for the ECB between exchange rate and monetary policy [3] Short-term and Mid-term Outlook - In the short term, the euro against the US dollar and other major currencies is expected to remain in a range-bound fluctuation, influenced by the ECB's decision and US economic data [3] - Mid-term uncertainties include the potential for increased economic divergence among core eurozone countries, the ECB's policy adjustments, and external factors such as global trade conditions and geopolitical issues impacting the euro's exchange rate [3] Market Implications - Stakeholders involved in euro-related trade and foreign exchange should closely monitor the ECB's interest rate decision and subsequent communications, as well as eurozone monthly inflation and PMI data, to effectively manage risks associated with exchange rate fluctuations [4] - The short-term strong trend of the euro is unlikely to change, but post-policy implementation, the exchange rate is expected to choose a mid-term direction with potentially increased volatility [4]