【债市观察】收益率连续三周下行 10债较高点回落近9BP

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity tightening in the market has eased under the central bank's support, leading to a stronger bond market despite weakness in commodity and equity markets, with yields generally declining by about 2 basis points [1]. Market Overview - From January 26 to January 30, 2026, the bond market saw a mixed performance with the yield curve showing a downward trend for most maturities, while the ultra-long end experienced upward pressure due to supply concerns [1][4]. - The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 2 basis points over the week, closing at 1.81% [4]. Bond Yield Changes - The changes in the China government bond yields from January 23 to January 30, 2026, were as follows: - 1-year: +1.8 BP - 2-year: -1.94 BP - 3-year: -2.09 BP - 5-year: -2.04 BP - 7-year: -1.82 BP - 10-year: -1.86 BP - 30-year: +0.19 BP - 50-year: +1.5 BP [2][3]. Primary Market Activity - A total of 95 bonds were issued last week, amounting to 624.275 billion yuan, with no government bonds issued [8]. - Local government bonds saw a significant increase in issuance, totaling 863.35 billion yuan in January, representing a year-on-year growth of 54.84% and 124.57% compared to the same period in 2024 [9]. International Market Insights - The U.S. bond market showed a mixed performance, with the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates as expected, while the PPI data exceeded expectations, leading to a steepening of the yield curve [10][11]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points to 4.25%, while the 30-year yield increased by 5 basis points to 4.88% [11]. Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for January was reported at 49.3%, indicating a decline, with production indices showing mixed results across different sectors [16]. - The total profit of industrial enterprises in December 2025 increased by 5.3% year-on-year, marking a significant recovery from previous months [16]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts suggest that the bond market is currently in a favorable micro-structural state, with liquidity remaining stable and a potential rebound window still open [18]. - The "Walsh era" at the Federal Reserve may focus more on forward-looking decisions, potentially impacting the dollar's strength and overall market dynamics [20].