长江有色：美鹰派预期及美股走弱引燃镍市抛售 2日镍价或大跌

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing significant downward pressure due to a combination of macroeconomic factors, weak demand from key sectors, and high inventory levels, leading to a notable decline in prices [1][2][4]. Supply Side - The current contradiction in the nickel market supply is characterized by Indonesia's long-term quota tightening versus the short-term abundance of ore exports, with the government planning to significantly reduce nickel mining quotas by 2026 while current quotas allow for continued production in the first quarter [3]. - Global refined nickel visible inventory is at a multi-year high, diminishing the market's speculative expectations of a "supply shortage," which directly suppresses prices [3]. Demand Side - Demand weakness is a significant driver of the current price decline, particularly in the stainless steel industry, which is showing low acceptance of current prices and minimal procurement activity [4]. - The growth in demand from the new energy battery sector is facing challenges, with high-nickel ternary batteries losing market share to lithium iron phosphate batteries, and a seasonal decline in new energy vehicle deliveries leading to reduced procurement of battery-grade nickel salts [4]. Industry Chain Status - The nickel industry chain is facing pressure from poor transmission of costs, with rising mining policy costs in Indonesia not being effectively passed down due to weak downstream demand [5]. - The focus of the conflict is in the midstream smelting sector, where new hydrometallurgical capacity in Indonesia is being released while downstream purchasing intentions remain low, severely compressing processing profit margins [5]. Spot Trading - The sharp decline in the futures market has triggered panic in the spot market, with traders lowering prices to avoid risk, but the buying power in the market is extremely weak, leading to minimal procurement from downstream enterprises [6]. - Mainstream spot prices are closely following the downward trend of futures, with a weakening basis structure and a disappearance of traditional price support intentions, reflecting a lack of confidence in both domestic and overseas markets [6]. Price Trend Forecast - Nickel prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short term, maintaining a weak and fluctuating downward trend due to macroeconomic tightening expectations and the fundamental realities of "high inventory, weak demand" [7]. - However, there is a potential for technical recovery following a sharp price drop, especially if Indonesia's quota policy details are implemented or if domestic manufacturing recovery exceeds expectations, which could reignite market expectations for tightening supply and improving demand [8].