金价跌破4600美元是洗盘 4900是下一目标

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have significantly declined after reaching historical highs, driven by a recovery in market risk appetite and changes in expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy and political uncertainty [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair by Trump has led to a rapid decrease in expectations for aggressive monetary easing, which is seen as a key signal reducing political interference in monetary policy [1] - As the credibility of Federal Reserve policies stabilizes, the relative attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset has decreased, leading to profit-taking among long positions and downward pressure on gold prices [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated, with Iran warning that any military action would be considered the start of war, while the U.S. has increased its military presence in the Persian Gulf [2] - The ongoing geopolitical risks continue to reinforce gold's status as a "super-sovereign safe-haven asset" [2] Group 3: Central Bank Activity - In 2025, global central bank net gold purchases reached 863 tons, a record high, with the trend of increasing gold holdings continuing into 2026 [2] - Countries like China, India, and Poland are increasing their gold reserves, providing a long-term buffer against downward pressure on gold prices [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis - After a rapid rise to historical highs, gold has entered a technical correction phase, which is seen as a necessary adjustment to the previous overextension [3] - Key support is identified around $4600, and if maintained, gold prices may stabilize; however, a return above $4900 is needed to resume a bullish trend [3] - The current market correction is primarily a response to the stabilization of Federal Reserve personnel expectations, leading to a decrease in the pricing of extreme monetary easing and institutional risks [3]