美银：全球股市面临下行风险 黄金仍是核心配置

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the current market optimism has reached a high level, with Bank of America’s "Bull-Bear Indicator" rising from 9.2 to 9.4, signaling a sell signal for risk assets [1] - Bank of America attributes the rise in investor optimism to the increase in global stock indices, a higher proportion of bullish positions, and robust technical indicators in the credit market, which have offset recent outflows from equity funds [1] - 89% of the MSCI global stock index is currently above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating that the market has entered what Bank of America defines as an "overbought" zone, suggesting a higher downside risk for the stock market [1] Group 2 - For investment strategies in 2026, the chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett emphasizes a continued preference for long-term bonds to address deflation and potential deleveraging risks, a structural bullish stance on international assets, particularly Chinese assets, and gold as a core allocation despite recent price volatility [1] - Recent fund flows show a shift towards defensive and physical assets, with bond funds receiving $17 billion in inflows, money market funds gaining $10 billion, and gold funds seeing inflows of $6.7 billion, marking the largest weekly inflow since October of the previous year [1] - Equity funds experienced an outflow of $15.4 billion, while crypto products recorded a net outflow of approximately $400 million [1] Group 3 - In terms of sector flows, materials funds saw a record inflow of $11.8 billion in a single week, while energy funds attracted $2.3 billion, the largest weekly inflow since October 2023 [2] - Regionally, U.S. equity funds saw a return of inflows amounting to $9.2 billion, while Europe experienced its first outflow in seven weeks, and emerging markets continued to see outflows [2]