分析：日本国债收益率曲线可能在第四季度走陡

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield curve is likely to experience "bear steepening" in the fourth quarter due to strong U.S. economic growth and expectations of accelerated interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in 2026 [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Predictions - The U.S. economic team at Morgan Stanley has revised its growth forecast upward, citing strong signs of private consumption [1][3]. - The Japanese team anticipates that the BOJ will announce its next interest rate hike in June 2026 [1][3]. Group 2: Yield Forecasts - The firm expects the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds to remain at 2.30% in the first and second quarters, rise to 2.45% in the third quarter, and then decrease to 2.40% in the fourth quarter [1][3]. - As of now, the 10-year JGB yield is reported at 2.270%, having increased by 2.5 basis points [2][4].