煤炭ETF（515220）回调超5%，春节后旺季需求有望底部回升，回调或可布局

Core Viewpoint - The coal ETF (515220) has experienced a decline of over 5%, but there is potential for demand recovery post-Spring Festival, making it a possible investment opportunity during this pullback [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Outlook - By 2026, coal supply growth is expected to significantly decrease compared to previous periods, with a notable improvement in demand anticipated for 2026 due to constraints in 2025 [1] - The overall coal price is projected to steadily recover, supported by high heating demand and constrained supply in terms of production and imports [1] Group 2: Profitability and Valuation - The coal industry is expected to see improved profitability forecasts by 2026, with clear advantages in valuation and dividend yield for the sector [1] - The coal sector's dividend yield is notably high, with the index tracking a yield exceeding 6% over the past 12 months as of the end of 2025, enhancing its investment appeal in a declining risk-free interest rate environment [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - In the thermal coal segment, industrial demand is expected to decline seasonally before and after the Spring Festival, but heating demand will remain elevated [1] - For coking coal, current inventory levels are at a medium-low point, and there is an expectation for demand recovery in the peak season following the Spring Festival, indicating long-term upward potential for coal prices [1]