Core Viewpoint - The silver market experienced a historic crash, with prices dropping over $40 in less than 20 hours, marking a 26% decline, while gold fell 9%, indicating a rapid shift from market euphoria to panic [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On February 2, international gold and silver prices faced unprecedented sell-offs, with gold dropping 9.25% to $4,880 per ounce and silver plummeting 26.42% to $85.26, the largest single-day decline in over 40 years [1]. - The immediate trigger for this crash was the nomination of hawkish Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump, which sparked fears of a shift in monetary policy, leading to a rebound in the dollar index that pressured precious metal prices [1][2]. - Prior to the crash, silver had an annualized return of 183% over the past month, and gold ETF holdings reached historical highs, with leveraged long positions exceeding 40%, indicating a market already at an "overbought critical point" [1][2]. Group 2: Trading Behavior - In the lead-up to the crash, global traders exhibited frenzied behavior, with the Shenzhen market seeing gold bar buyback prices surge by 180 yuan per gram, and long queues forming at silver counters [2]. - The SLV silver ETF saw a single-day trading volume exceeding $40 billion, 20 times the normal trading volume, while the options market experienced a "short squeeze" with 65% of open call contracts [2]. - The market's turning point was influenced by a sell-off triggered by disappointing Microsoft earnings, which led to programmatic stop-loss orders and a rapid decline in gold prices [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Despite expectations of a "catch-up" in Shanghai silver prices post-crash, structural imbalances remain, with global central bank gold purchases reaching a record 5,000 tons and an industrial silver demand gap widening to 3,000 tons per year, while mineral supply growth is insufficient at under 2% [3]. - Citic Securities predicts that by 2026, gold prices could challenge $6,000, and silver may reach $120, although short-term caution is warranted due to regulatory adjustments in China, with several banks raising gold accumulation thresholds to 1,500 yuan [3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The significant drop in gold prices has breached the critical psychological level of $5,000, indicating a bearish short-term outlook, with key price levels to watch being $4,600 and $4,500 [4]. - For silver, the market has retraced more than half of its January gains, with the 50% retracement level at $83.61, which may present an attractive entry point for long-term bullish investors [5]. - The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is noted at $74.63, potentially serving as a better re-entry point for an upward trend, coinciding with the 50-day moving average [5].
狂热散尽 贵金属“脱缙”行情戛然而止？
Jin Tou Wang·2026-02-02 07:00