华创证券张瑜：美股四季度盈利观察

Overall Situation - The profit growth rate of S&P 500 companies for Q4 is 10.8%, down from 24.1% in Q3 2025, but still considered high historically [2][22] - As of February 1, 180 companies have reported their Q4 earnings, representing about half of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500 [2][22] Industry Breakdown - There is significant divergence in profit growth across industries; 7 out of 11 sectors reported negative profit growth [9][31] - Only the Information Technology, Financial, Industrial, and Utility sectors showed positive profit growth [9][31] - The Information Technology sector had a profit growth rate of 44.5%, contributing 12.6% to the overall profit growth of the sample companies [9][31] Information Technology - 25 companies in the Information Technology sector reported earnings, with 21 showing positive profit growth and 18 exceeding 10% growth [12][33] - Notable performers include SanDisk with a growth rate of 672%, Western Digital at 210%, Micron Technology at 180.2%, Broadcom at 97%, and Oracle at 94.7% [12][33] Utilities - The Utilities sector performed well, with two companies reporting a combined profit growth rate of 251.1% [14][36] - This performance is likely linked to rising electricity prices, with the CPI for electricity services showing a year-on-year increase of 6.7% in December 2025 [14][36] Industrial - The Industrial sector saw a profit growth rate of 45.9%, driven largely by military production [17][38] - Key companies include Boeing, which returned to profitability, Lockheed Martin with a growth rate of 155%, Northrop Grumman at 66.7%, and General Electric Aerospace at 34.9% [17][38] - The production index for aerospace and other transportation equipment has been rising rapidly since September 2025, averaging a year-on-year growth of 20.9% over the last four months [17][38]