智通财经网·2026-02-02 07:29Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities indicates that uranium futures prices are expected to rise to $98 per pound by January 28, 2026, representing a 29% increase compared to December 24, 2025, driven by tight supply and increasing demand for nuclear energy [1] Supply Side Analysis - Limited capital expenditure and unsustainable mining operations in Kazakhstan are impacting supply, with Kazatomprom announcing a plan to reduce uranium production by approximately 10% in 2026 [1][4] - Kazakhstan, which holds 13% of global uranium resources, supplies 43% of the world's uranium production, indicating a potential supply crunch [4] Demand Side Analysis - The global focus on energy security is expected to drive continued growth in nuclear power demand, with China projected to be a major contributor to this growth [1][6] - The U.S. and China are the top two uranium demand countries, with their combined demand expected to increase. In 2024, U.S. demand is projected at 18,100 tons, accounting for 26.86% of global demand, while China's demand is expected to reach 13,100 tons, making up 19.45% of the total [5] Future Projections - According to the IEA, global nuclear power capacity is predicted to reach 2.6 times the level of 2024 by 2050, with China leading this growth [6] - The U.S. is considering expanding its strategic uranium reserves to reduce reliance on Russian supplies, which may further elevate uranium prices [7] Market Developments - The recent submission of a preliminary prospectus by the physical natural uranium trust SPUT to issue up to $2 billion in transferable, non-redeemable trust shares over 25 months indicates a positive outlook for uranium demand [2] - The restart of the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant Unit 6 by Tokyo Electric Power Company marks a significant development in Japan's nuclear energy landscape [2] Concentration of Uranium Resources - As of January 2021, Australia, Kazakhstan, Canada, Russia, and Namibia hold the majority of the world's uranium resources, with the top three countries accounting for over 50% of total reserves [3] - In 2022, Kazakhstan, Canada, and Namibia were the top three uranium-producing countries, collectively accounting for nearly 70% of global production [3]