Alphabet(US:GOOGL) 智通财经网·2026-02-02 07:40Core Viewpoint - Alphabet is expected to report strong Q4 results for FY2025, with revenue projected at $111.45 billion, a year-over-year increase of 15.53%, and earnings per share (EPS) anticipated at $2.64, reflecting a 23% growth compared to the previous year [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - The company has achieved double-digit EPS growth for the past 10 quarters, exceeding market expectations in the last four quarters, setting a positive tone for the upcoming earnings report [2]. - Analysts predict total revenue around $111.43 billion, with a year-over-year growth of approximately 15.5%, and a consensus EPS of $2.64, up from $2.13 a year ago, indicating a growth of about 23% [2]. Group 2: Key Growth Drivers - Cloud computing and advertising are identified as key growth drivers, with expectations for the cloud market to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15.7% post-2026, indicating strong market momentum [2]. - The digital advertising market is also expected to experience robust growth, with a projected CAGR exceeding 13% from 2026 to 2035, suggesting that the company is positioned in a high-growth market [2]. Group 3: Investor Focus Areas - Investors should closely monitor Google Cloud's backlog and profit margin trends, with expectations that the backlog will reach approximately $155 billion by Q3 2025, as any updates on conversion rates or 2026 guidance could affirm long-term growth prospects [4]. - The commercialization signals of artificial intelligence (AI) should be a focal point, particularly metrics related to Gemini adoption, enterprise customer cases, and new AI-driven search functionalities, which will help validate the rationale behind significant AI investments [4]. - Capital expenditures and free cash flow outlooks are critical, with Q4 capital expenditures expected to surge by 91.3% to $27.3 billion, raising concerns about whether such investments will translate into actual profit returns [4]. - Guidance for FY2026 regarding capital expenditures and free cash flow will be particularly important, as peak spending could indicate a turning point for sustainable profit margin growth [4]. Group 4: Management's Strategic Outlook - The decisive factor in the upcoming earnings report will not solely be whether revenue meets expectations, but rather management's outlook on the monetization path for AI in 2026 and the ability to demonstrate that high investments are translating into more efficient cloud services and smarter advertising products [5].