债市日报：2月2日

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing consolidation, with fluctuations in the context of equity market adjustments, and the focus is on the central bank's operations and liquidity conditions ahead of the Spring Festival [1] Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract up 0.18% at 112.06, while the 10-year main contract fell 0.03% to 108.25 [2] - The 30-year government bond yield decreased by 0.8 basis points to 2.252%, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 0.15 basis points to 1.8115% [2] - The China Convertible Bond Index fell by 2.39%, with 194 convertible bonds dropping over 2%, while a few saw gains exceeding 2% [2] Overseas Bond Market - In the Eurozone, 10-year bond yields decreased, with French yields down 0.9 basis points to 3.417% and German yields down 1.8 basis points to 2.838% [3] - In North America, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose by 0.62 basis points to 4.237%, while 2-year yields fell by 2.85 basis points to 3.522% [3] Primary Market - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds were issued with yields below market estimates, with 1-year, 3-year, and 10-year yields at 1.4719%, 1.5418%, and 1.9599% respectively [4] Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan for the day [5] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate rising by 3.7 basis points to 1.365% [5] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index were reported at 49.3%, 49.4%, and 49.8%, indicating a decline in economic activity [6] Institutional Views - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that the traditional strategy of "watching stocks or commodities to trade bonds" is failing due to commodity price volatility and increased demand for dividend insurance, leading to a "stock-bond co-temperature" [8] - Huachuang Securities notes that the January PMI's unexpected decline reflects a weak economic reality, with caution advised regarding upstream price increases affecting downstream demand [8] - Jianghai Securities indicates that while caution is warranted regarding low bond yields, the risk of rising rates is limited, with recent market performance showing strength amid easing concerns [8]