地缘风险升温+供需拐点显现，石油ETF鹏华（159697）规模破16亿迎配置窗口

Group 1 - The oil market is experiencing a critical turning point due to rising geopolitical risks and supply expectation discrepancies, leading to increased investment in oil-themed ETFs, particularly the Penghua Oil ETF (159697), which has seen explosive growth in scale [1] - As of January 30, 2026, the Penghua Oil ETF's scale reached 1.661 billion yuan, a significant increase from 207 million yuan on December 31, 2025, representing a growth of over 700% [1] - The rapid expansion of the fund's scale is attributed to its quality attributes and the structural opportunities in the oil market, with a report from CICC suggesting that the first expected divergence in oil supply may be entering a verification phase [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks have become a key variable driving changes in the oil supply landscape, with recent developments in major oil-producing regions such as South America and the Middle East, including a military blockade on Venezuelan oil exports [2] - Venezuela's oil production fell to 830,000 barrels per day in December, a decrease of 130,000 barrels per day (13.5% decline), while oil exports dropped to 423,000 barrels per day, down by 180,000 barrels per day (30% decline) [2] - OPEC+ has seen a decline in its production increase execution rate, with the first quarter of 2026 set to officially pause production increases, as the actual output increase has significantly lagged behind planned targets [2] Group 3 - Investing directly in oil-related listed companies may pose challenges in stock selection, making the ETF a more efficient and diversified option for exposure to the entire industry chain [3] - The Penghua Oil ETF closely tracks the National Securities Oil and Gas Index (399439.SZ), with its top ten holdings including major companies like China National Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil, and Sinopec, collectively accounting for about 67% of the fund [3] - The ETF effectively captures the profit elasticity across the entire industry chain, covering upstream exploration, midstream transportation, and downstream refining, benefiting from rising oil prices [3]