安永预警：工党增税“后劲”显现，2026年英国经济恐遭持续拖累！

Economic Outlook - The UK economy is projected to achieve only a 0.9% growth in 2026, a slight increase from the previous forecast of 0.8% [1][6] - The Labour government's tax increases and public spending cuts are identified as major factors contributing to the current economic stagnation [1][6] Fiscal Policy Impact - EY Item Club's chief economic advisor, Matt Swannell, indicates that previously announced tax policies will continue to exert a tightening effect on the economy for years [2][7] - Even without new tax measures in the upcoming budget, existing policies will still negatively impact economic growth due to required reductions in borrowing and stable public spending [2][7] Investment Trends - EY has revised its 2025 economic growth forecast down from 1.5% to 1.4%, citing underperformance in the previous summer [3][8] - Business investment, initially expected to grow by 0.8% this year, is now forecasted to shrink by 0.2% due to geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions [3][8] Trade and Manufacturing Challenges - A survey by Make UK and DHL reveals that one-fifth of UK manufacturers have reduced or halted exports to the US due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [4][9] - Approximately 25% of manufacturers report balance sheet losses due to additional costs from US tariffs, with a similar proportion having accelerated exports to the US before tariffs took effect [4][9] Capital Market Concerns - The UK capital market faces structural issues, highlighted by Arm's CEO Rene Haas, who criticized the lack of risk capital and low risk appetite in the UK [5][10] - The absence of sufficient venture capital and secondary market support is seen as a barrier to the growth of startups and their path to public listings [5][10]