Youtube·2026-02-02 09:34Group 1: Federal Reserve and Kevin Walsh - Kevin Walsh has been confirmed as Trump's pick for Fed chair, known for his criticism of the central bank and calls for a reduction in its balance sheet [1] - Walsh is expected to be well-received by policymakers due to his previous experience as a Fed governor and his persuasive arguments [2] - The announcement of Walsh's appointment has been a catalyst for market reactions, with expectations of a stable Fed independence [9][10] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Treasuries have remained steady despite volatility in other asset classes, with the 10-year yield at 4.218% [3] - The dollar experienced its largest rally since May, gaining approximately 210% over the past week, indicating challenges to US exceptionalism [4] - Bitcoin fell below $80,000 for the first time since April, reflecting a broader pullback from riskier assets amid a global sell-off [5] Group 3: Earnings Season and Market Expectations - Over 100 S&P 500 companies, including major firms like Amazon and Alphabet, are set to report earnings this week, with expectations of better-than-expected results [14][15] - In the US, earnings revisions are outpacing those in Europe, with consensus expectations for seven of the eleven S&P sectors to show sequential declines despite strong overall performance [17] - The stronger euro is impacting European multinationals, but expectations have already been adjusted, suggesting limited downside surprises [19] Group 4: Emerging Markets and Asia - Emerging market equities and rates are viewed positively, with expectations of reduced volatility benefiting high beta assets [22] - Asian markets, particularly Korea, have seen significant gains despite recent pullbacks, indicating a normalization after a period of frenzy [23] - The weaker dollar is expected to support a favorable earning setup for Asian equities and emerging markets overall [24]