国盛宏观：力争“开门红”，还有哪些政策可期？

Core Viewpoint - The recent policies focus on expanding domestic demand to achieve a "good start" for 2026, with six major focal points including the UK Prime Minister's visit to China, various measures to support service consumption, the launch of the "2026 National Spring Festival Cultural and Tourism Consumption Month," a comprehensive fiscal and financial policy package to boost domestic demand, modifications to the securities issuance registration management regulations by the CSRC to attract "patient capital," and the commencement of local two sessions [2][44][45]. Group 1: Major Policies - The UK Prime Minister's visit from January 28-31 resulted in several positive outcomes, including a unilateral visa waiver for UK citizens and a reduction in the whisky import tariff from 10% to 5% [3][12][45]. - Multiple measures to support service consumption were introduced, including 18 policies to enhance the elderly care service industry and the release of a plan to cultivate new growth points in service consumption, focusing on transportation, housekeeping, online audio-visual services, tourism, automotive aftermarket, and inbound consumption [3][15][45]. - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism launched the "2026 National Spring Festival Cultural and Tourism Consumption Month," planning approximately 30,000 cultural and tourism consumption activities and distributing over 360 million yuan in consumption vouchers [3][31][45]. - A fiscal and financial policy package was released, including the establishment of a 500 billion yuan special guarantee plan for private investment and the introduction of interest subsidies for small and micro enterprises [3][36][45]. - The CSRC modified the relevant legal opinions on the registration management of securities issuance to attract "patient capital," expanding the types of strategic investors and setting a minimum shareholding requirement of no less than 5% [3][14][45]. - Local two sessions are underway, with 22 regions setting an average GDP target of 5%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous year, with major economic provinces also reducing their targets by 0.5 percentage points [3][16][45]. Group 2: Local Policies - The local two sessions are concluding, with 22 regions having already set their GDP targets for 2026, with the highest being over 7% in Tibet and the lowest at 4.5% in Tianjin [3][16][39]. - The average GDP target for these regions is 5%, down from 5.3% the previous year, with 13 regions lowering their targets, 8 maintaining them, and 1 (Jiangxi) increasing its target [3][16][39]. Group 3: Industry Policies - Various regions are optimizing housing fund and housing ticket management to stimulate housing demand, including initiatives in Nanjing and Tianjin to enhance accessibility to housing funds [3][18][41]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued guidelines for the construction of zero-carbon factories, aiming to tap into energy-saving and carbon-reduction potential in key industries, with a target to cultivate a number of zero-carbon factories by 2027 [3][42][41].