预测：悬了？明日钢价咋走？

Group 1: Market Overview - The international macroeconomic uncertainty is increasing, and the industry is experiencing a "strong supply and weak demand" situation, leading to a decline in futures steel prices [3][16] - The market is characterized by weak trading activity ahead of the Spring Festival, with terminal demand contracting while steel production remains unchanged, resulting in continuous inventory accumulation [3][16] Group 2: Current Steel Prices - Rebar prices are expected to decrease slightly due to increased production and declining terminal demand, leading to accelerated inventory accumulation [3][16] - Hot-rolled coil inventory has risen to 2.1083 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.74%, indicating supply pressure, while demand remains weak [4][16] - Medium and heavy plate inventory has increased by 3.28% to 730,000 tons, maintaining a high level, with market transactions remaining sluggish [5][17] - Wire rod prices are expected to decline as terminal demand approaches a standstill with the upcoming holiday [6][17] - Section steel prices are under pressure due to weak demand from construction and manufacturing activities, leading to a lack of upward momentum [7][18] - Pipe prices are expected to remain stable, although both supply and demand are weakening as manufacturers begin holiday shutdowns [8][19] Group 3: Raw Material Market - Steel billet prices are expected to decline slightly, with market activity decreasing and a lack of sustained driving force for finished products [9][20] - Iron ore shipments increased to 30.946 million tons last week, with rising supply from Australia and Brazil, leading to price pressure [10][21] - Coking coal prices are expected to weaken due to slow downstream replenishment and soft demand [11][22] - Scrap steel prices are expected to fluctuate as market sentiment remains cautious amid low demand and thin profit margins for steel mills [12][23] Group 4: Overall Sentiment - The market is experiencing heightened risk aversion due to the sharp decline in precious metals and non-ferrous sectors, which is affecting the black metal market [13][24] - The overall market sentiment remains weak as supply and demand contradictions become more pronounced ahead of the Spring Festival, with traders adopting a wait-and-see approach [13][24]