大涨VS暴跌？这些节点决定全年走势……

Core Viewpoint - The domestic steel market in January 2026 exhibited a fluctuating trend characterized by an initial rise followed by a decline, influenced by macro policy expectations, seasonal demand effects, and weak market transactions [10][11]. January Market Review - The overall steel price in January showed a pattern of "initial bottoming and recovery, followed by high-level decline, and a low-level rebound before another drop," with a core operating range of 3085-3198 yuan/ton [11]. - The first phase (January 5-7) saw a weak bottoming trend due to seasonal demand shrinkage and cautious winter storage intentions from traders, leading to a weak supply-demand dynamic [11]. - The second phase (January 8-21) experienced high-level fluctuations with no clear trend, as the market faced increasing supply-demand contradictions and inventory accumulation [12]. - The third phase (January 22-30) marked a low-level rebound driven by strengthening cost support and marginal improvements in market sentiment, although the overall weak supply-demand situation persisted [13]. February Steel Price Outlook - February is expected to be influenced by traditional holiday effects, with positive expectations for policy benefits from the March meetings providing support for the steel market [14]. - The central bank's announcement of a comprehensive monetary policy package, including potential rate cuts, lays a foundation for macro expectations, although immediate impacts on February are limited [14]. - The industry anticipates increased inventory pressure in February, with a significant reduction in demand before the holiday, which may suppress steel prices [14]. - Overall, February is projected to see a limited increase in prices, with expectations of a narrow fluctuation before the holiday and potential price increases afterward [14]. Operational Recommendations - Steel prices should be approached cautiously, with opportunities for minor replenishment only when prices return to undervalued zones, while profits can be gradually realized [15].