Analysis-Obesity market sales potential tightens as Novo and Lilly enter new era

Market Overview - The global market for obesity drugs, previously expected to reach $150 billion in the next decade, is now facing uncertainty due to falling U.S. prices for GLP-1 treatments and increased competition in the cash-pay consumer market [1][2] - Analysts have revised their peak market forecasts downward, with projections for 2030 now around 30% lower at approximately $100 billion, and the $150 billion target pushed to 2035 for some [3] Analyst Insights - Jefferies has reduced its forecast for the weight-loss market by 20%, estimating a peak of $80 billion, down from over $100 billion [4] - Goldman Sachs has also adjusted its expectations, lowering its estimate for global obesity drug sales by 2030 to $105 billion from $130 billion, citing price erosion and changing customer-use patterns [7] Company Performance - Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are the dominant players in the obesity drug market, with Lilly achieving a $1 trillion valuation last year and Novo's Wegovy weight-loss pill performing strongly [5] - Analysts anticipate that Novo will forecast a decline in sales and operating profit for 2026, while Lilly is expected to see over 21% revenue growth and adjusted earnings growth of over 40% in 2026 compared to 2025 estimates [6]