Apptopia Data Signals Material Improvement in Tinder Performance Heading into Match Group Earnings

Core Insights - Apptopia's Q4 2025 earnings preview for Match Group indicates that Tinder's performance is expected to exceed Wall Street's consensus expectations [1][8] Group 1: Tinder Performance - Apptopia's Mobile Performance Index (MPI) shows significant year-over-year growth in Tinder Payers for Q4 2025, while the consensus outlook suggests only modest acceleration [2] - Despite a 4.2% year-over-year decline in downloads in the United States, there has been sequential improvement since Q2 2025 [4] - Daily active users in the US fell by 7.5% year-over-year, but engagement metrics, particularly among Gen Z, are improving, with average time spent per DAU for younger users (aged 17-25) increasing by 13.9% year-over-year [4][8] Group 2: Hinge Performance - Hinge's US downloads are down 4.1% year-over-year, but daily active users have increased by 7.1% year-over-year [7] - Engagement metrics for Hinge are weakening, with average time spent per DAU for younger users (aged 17-25) declining by 29.7% year-over-year [7] - Male users of Hinge experienced a significant drop in average time spent per DAU, decreasing by 25.4% year-over-year, while female users saw a slight increase of 4.5% [7] Group 3: Overall Market Insights - The combination of declining app downloads and rising engagement metrics for Tinder suggests a better-than-expected outcome for Tinder Payers in Q4 2025 [5] - Apptopia's MPI indicates that Match Group's Tinder performance may exceed market expectations, while Hinge's declining engagement metrics among young users require close monitoring [8]