ZFX山海证券:即时满足感正蚕食BTC流动性

Core Insights - Bitcoin has experienced an unexpected decline of over 10% in the past month, contrasting with a more than 12% increase in gold prices and a steady rise in the S&P 500 index, leading to widespread discussion about its market behavior [1][3] - ZFX Shanhai Securities indicates that Bitcoin is undergoing a phenomenon termed "speculative erosion," where speculative capital that previously flowed into the crypto market is being diverted to online sports betting, prediction markets, and zero-day-to-expiration (0DTE) options, driven by a societal craving for instant gratification [1][2] Market Dynamics - The current market environment is increasingly favoring a "winner-takes-all" and rapid stimulation model, rather than long-term investment strategies that require patience [1][2] - Historical data shows that Bitcoin has strong long-term holding value, with investors holding for over five years never experiencing actual losses; however, in a market that prioritizes instant feedback, Bitcoin is perceived as a "slow asset" [1][2] Capital Flow and Investment Behavior - The preference for quick returns has led to marginal capital being absorbed by fast-paced platforms that, while offering lower expected returns, provide continuous engagement, thereby diminishing Bitcoin's explosive potential in speculative cycles [4] - Even anticipated spot ETFs struggle to gain traction under these behavioral constraints, as assets that do not provide short-term emotional closure find it difficult to compete in the increasingly fierce "attention economy" [2][4] Future Outlook - The competitive landscape poses significant short-term challenges for Bitcoin, despite its long-term value logic remaining intact; investors must acknowledge the structural changes in the flow of speculative funds [2][4] - In a context where capital is increasingly drawn to fast-paced, high-reaction markets, Bitcoin needs to find new narratives to reignite market sentiment; otherwise, its liquidity may continue to face marginalization challenges in the absence of instant feedback stimuli [2][4]