Moneta Markets外汇:BTC涨势动能枯竭

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market has not continued its strong performance as expected by bulls, with Bitcoin experiencing significant volatility and dropping below the $78,000 mark, marking its lowest level since April of the previous year [1][2]. Market Conditions - The market appears extremely fragile due to the diminishing growth benefits from early corporate demand and a lack of fresh buying support, leading to a decline triggered by profit-taking and liquidity scarcity [1][2]. - The current downward movement may indicate the collapse of the "false prosperity" that previously supported bullish sentiment, suggesting that the recent decline could be just the beginning [1][2]. Technical Analysis - Bitcoin has entered a correction phase characterized by sideways trading since late October of the previous year, with the notion of a return to peak levels being viewed as blind optimism by investors [3]. - Key technical indicators, such as the monthly MACD, showed a bearish crossover in November, and the 21 and 55-period exponential moving averages (EMA) have recently entered a bearish zone [3]. - The annual closing for 2025 displayed a "shooting star" pattern, which is typically interpreted as a signal for a mid-term trend reversal [3]. Options Market Insights - Defensive positioning in the options market further corroborates market concerns, with the nominal open interest value of put options at a strike price of $75,000 on the Deribit platform soaring to $1.159 billion, nearly equal to that of call options at $100,000 [4]. - This indicates that traders are significantly hedging against downside risks rather than speculating on higher price levels [4]. - The current deep washout in Bitcoin is seen as a necessary process to clear excessive leverage, with potential for prices to further dip into the $50,000 to $60,000 range in the short term [4]. - However, this level of adjustment does not signify the end of the crypto cycle; rather, it may provide a more cost-effective value opportunity for long-term investors after the leverage bubble is cleared [4].