兴证策略张启尧团队：近期全球资产共振调整的本质

Core Viewpoint - The recent nomination of Warsh has triggered a global asset adjustment, with significant correlations observed between the cumulative adjustment since January 30 and the year-to-date performance of major global indices and commodities [1][23]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Asian stock markets, cryptocurrencies, and commodities have experienced notable risk adjustments, primarily attributed to liquidity expectations following Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair, but fundamentally driven by prior overly optimistic trading conditions [1][23]. - The Hong Kong stock market sentiment index approached the upper threshold of 70%, with future 12-month PE valuations returning to pre-October highs from the previous year, alongside record highs in precious metals and the South Korean stock market [2][25]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Warsh's short-term impact on asset prices is expected to be more narrative and emotional, with limited substantial influence on existing Fed monetary policy paths, as factors like U.S. employment, inflation, and liquidity in the repurchase market remain critical [6][26]. - For A-shares, the year-to-date increase is supported by favorable domestic fundamentals, a "good start" policy, and ample liquidity, with core drivers for the spring market remaining unchanged [6][28]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Focus on sectors with lower recent gains but strong logical support, such as high-performing technology manufacturing, AI applications, and the price increase chain, which includes oil and domestic-driven sectors [8][32][37]. - The AI application sector is highlighted for its potential, with a dense catalyst period in February and a reasonable level of crowding, making it a focal point during the fundamental gap [10][34].