兴业证券：近期全球资产共振调整 本质为投机资金获利了结

Core Viewpoint - Recent adjustments in Asian stock markets, cryptocurrencies, and commodities are primarily driven by the nomination of Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman, which has impacted liquidity expectations. However, the underlying cause is the prior overly optimistic trading environment, leading speculative funds to take profits amid negative events [1][2]. Group 1: Market Adjustments - The global asset adjustment is correlated with the nomination of Warsh, with a significant negative correlation between the cumulative adjustment since January 30 and the year-to-date performance of major global indices and commodities [2]. - The Hong Kong stock market sentiment index approached the upper limit of 70%, and the future 12-month PE valuation returned to levels seen before October of the previous year, indicating a strong market sentiment [5]. Group 2: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market's rise since the beginning of the year is supported by favorable domestic fundamentals, a "New Year" policy boost, and ample liquidity, which are expected to continue driving the spring market [7]. - Key drivers for the spring market include the verification of performance improvement trends through annual report forecasts, macro data releases in February, and a surge in AI applications, which are anticipated to provide structural guidance for further market development [7]. Group 3: Catalysts and Industry Focus - A series of industry catalysts are scheduled for February, including OPEC meetings, AI application events, and significant earnings reports from major companies, which could influence market dynamics [10]. - The AI application sector is expected to see concentrated catalysts in February, with current levels of crowding deemed reasonable, suggesting an opportunity for increased focus during this fundamental gap period [12]. Group 4: Investment Themes - Investment themes to watch include high-performing technology manufacturing sectors (AI hardware, new energy, pharmaceuticals), price increase chains (oil, chemicals, construction materials), and the Spring Festival consumption chain (tourism, hotels, beverages) [10]. - Non-bank financials, particularly brokers and insurance companies, may have potential for recovery after being negatively impacted by broad ETF outflows, indicating a favorable outlook for these sectors [10].