Di Yi Cai Jing·2026-02-02 13:41Core Viewpoint - The "luwei" industry is undergoing significant differentiation and deep adjustments, with major players showing contrasting performance signals amid a backdrop of slowing growth and intensified competition [2] Performance Divergence - ST Juewei (603517.SH) has announced an expected revenue of 5.3 billion to 5.5 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 12.09% to 15.29%, and anticipates its first annual loss since its listing, estimating a loss of 160 million to 220 million yuan [3] - In contrast, Huangshanghuang (002695.SZ) forecasts a net profit of 70 million to 90 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 73.57% to 123.16% [4] Store Count Reduction - Despite the increase in net profit for Huangshanghuang and ST Juewei, both companies are reducing their store counts. Huangshanghuang had 2,898 stores in June 2025, down from 3,660 at the end of 2024 [6] - ST Juewei has seen a net reduction of over 4,000 stores in a year and a half, with approximately 10,713 stores remaining as of February 2026 [6] Industry Challenges - The overall "luwei" industry is facing challenges such as product homogenization, high prices, and changing consumer willingness, leading to the closure of inefficient stores and a search for transformation among leading companies [2][7] - The industry growth has slowed significantly, with a CAGR of 6.42% from 2018 to 2023, and the market size reaching approximately 318 billion yuan in 2023 [6] Competitive Landscape - The industry is experiencing threats from alternative products, including snacks and hot pot brands, which are encroaching on the "luwei" market [7] - There is a high degree of product overlap among the top 10 brands, with 80% of their offerings being similar, leading to concerns about pricing and consumer value perception [7]