Should You Buy, Sell or Hold Barrick Mining Ahead of Q4 Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - Barrick Mining Corporation is expected to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 5, with earnings anticipated to rise by 89.1% year-over-year, driven by higher gold prices despite production and cost challenges [1][6]. Group 1: Earnings Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Barrick's fourth-quarter earnings is set at 87 cents per share, reflecting an increase from previous estimates over the last 60 days [1]. - Barrick has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of approximately 8.7% [2]. Group 2: Production and Costs - Higher gold prices are expected to support Barrick's performance, with gold prices closing nearly 13% higher in the fourth quarter and surging about 65% in 2025 [7]. - However, Barrick is facing weaker year-over-year production, with a projected 18% decline in gold production for the fourth quarter, estimated at around 889,000 ounces [9]. - The company experienced a 12% year-over-year decline in third-quarter gold production, primarily due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine [8]. - Higher production costs are anticipated to impact fourth-quarter results, with cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) increasing by approximately 3% and 2% year-over-year, respectively [10][11]. Group 3: Market Performance and Valuation - Barrick's stock has increased by 176.5% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 127.3% and the S&P 500's rise of 18.1% [12]. - The company is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 13.56, which is about a 6% discount compared to the industry average of 14.43 [15]. Group 4: Strategic Positioning - Barrick is well-positioned to benefit from key growth projects that are on schedule and within budget, which should significantly contribute to future production [18]. - The company maintains a robust liquidity position and generates healthy cash flows, allowing it to pursue development, exploration, and acquisition opportunities [19]. - Despite challenges from higher costs and operational issues leading to lower production, Barrick's strong pipeline of growth projects and favorable gold market conditions support a positive outlook [21].