Should CPT Stock Be in Your Portfolio Ahead of Q4 Earnings?

Core Insights - Camden Property Trust (CPT) is expected to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 5, with anticipated revenue growth year-over-year, although funds from operations (FFO) per share may remain flat [1][8]. Industry Overview - The U.S. apartment market experienced a softening in fundamentals during Q4 2025, with net move-outs of approximately 40,400 units, marking the first seasonal pullback in three years [3]. - Full-year absorption reached just over 365,900 units, indicating a shift back to long-term leasing trends rather than a demand collapse [3]. - Supply pressures remain significant, with around 409,500 units delivered in 2025, including about 89,400 in Q4, leading to increased competition [4]. - Occupancy rates fell to 94.8%, and effective asking rents decreased by 1.7% quarter-over-quarter, with a year-over-year decline of 0.6% in 2025 [4]. Company Performance - In the last reported quarter, Camden Property Trust achieved an FFO per share of $1.70, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.59%, driven by higher same-property revenues and effective blended lease rates, despite increased interest expenses [2]. - For Q4 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for CPT's revenues is $394.9 million, reflecting a growth of 2.2% from the previous year [7]. - Camden's core FFO per share estimate remains at $1.73, unchanged from the prior year, with expectations for Q4 ranging between $1.71 and $1.75 [9][8]. Market Dynamics - The apartment market's performance is uneven, with supply-heavy regions like Austin, Phoenix, and Denver facing the most significant rent pressures, while coastal and tech-oriented areas like New York and San Francisco continue to see rent growth due to tighter supply [5]. - Camden is expected to benefit from its presence in high-growth markets and a strong resident base, which may help maintain steady rental revenues [6]. - However, the elevated supply of rental units in certain markets is likely to increase competition, hindering rent growth and negatively impacting bottom-line performance [7].