Shell Q4 Earnings: Can Upstream Gains Offset Weak Spots?

Core Viewpoint - Shell plc (SHEL) is expected to report fourth-quarter results on February 5, with earnings estimated at $1.21 per share and revenues of $68.1 billion, reflecting a marginal year-over-year improvement in earnings and a slight increase in revenues [2][4]. Group 1: Previous Quarter Performance - In the third quarter, Shell reported earnings of $1.86 per ADS, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.72, while revenues of $70.4 billion fell short of expectations by nearly 6% due to declining oil prices [3]. - Shell has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, achieving an average earnings surprise of 5.2% [4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Q4 Results - The marketing division is anticipated to face challenges in Q4, with adjusted earnings under pressure due to seasonal factors, including colder temperatures leading to lower demand for refined fuels and natural gas [6]. - The chemicals sub-segment is expected to report significant losses in adjusted earnings, impacted by volatile raw material costs and changing market demands [7]. - Conversely, Shell's upstream production is projected to increase slightly to between 1.84 million and 1.94 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, aided by the Adura joint venture [8]. Group 3: Earnings Prediction Model - The Zacks model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for Shell, as the Earnings ESP stands at 0.00%, indicating no difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate [9][11]. - Shell currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), suggesting a cautious outlook for the upcoming earnings report [11].