今年中国电力供需预计总体平衡 新能源保持较大投产规模

Core Insights - The report predicts that by 2026, the overall balance of electricity supply and demand in China will be achieved, with significant production capacity from renewable energy sources [1][2] - The report anticipates a stable growth in China's macro economy, which will drive a steady increase in electricity consumption [1] Electricity Demand and Supply - The total electricity consumption in China is expected to reach between 10.9 trillion and 11 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of 5% to 6% [1] - The maximum electricity load for the year is projected to be between 1.57 billion and 1.63 billion kilowatts [1] - During peak summer periods, certain regions such as Southwest, Central China, and East China may experience tight electricity supply, but this can be mitigated through inter-provincial and inter-regional cooperation [2] Renewable Energy Development - By 2026, it is expected that over 400 million kilowatts of new power generation capacity will be added, with more than 300 million kilowatts coming from renewable sources [1] - The combined installed capacity of wind and solar energy is projected to account for about half of the total installed capacity, with solar power expected to surpass coal power for the first time [1] - By the end of 2026, the total installed power generation capacity in China is anticipated to reach approximately 4.3 billion kilowatts, with non-fossil energy sources accounting for 2.7 billion kilowatts, representing 63% of the total capacity [1] Historical Context and Future Projections - As of the end of 2025, the installed capacity of non-fossil energy sources is expected to be 2.4 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 23%, making up 61.7% of the total installed capacity [2] - The total installed capacity across all energy sources is projected to be 3.89 billion kilowatts by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1% [2] - The report indicates that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the total installed capacity is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 12% [2] Contribution of Renewable Energy to Electricity Generation - In 2025, the total electricity generation from non-fossil energy sources is expected to reach 4.47 trillion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, accounting for 42.9% of total electricity generation [2] - The contribution of new electricity generation from wind, solar, and biomass sources is projected to constitute 97.1% of the total increase in electricity consumption [2]