地产经纬丨“量”在“价”先？上海二手房成交节前“反季”活跃

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai second-hand housing market is experiencing an unexpected surge in activity during the traditional off-peak season, driven by improved price-performance ratios and a shift in buyer sentiment towards lower-priced properties [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Activity - From November 2025 to January 2026, the Shanghai second-hand housing market recorded nearly 23,000 transactions per month, totaling close to 70,000 homes sold in three months, breaking the traditional seasonal slowdown [2][3]. - The transaction volume in January 2026 increased significantly compared to the previous years, with a year-on-year growth of 39.4% compared to January 2024 and 23.4% compared to January 2025 [2]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - The average price of second-hand residential properties in Shanghai in January 2026 was 55,265 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 1.22% and a year-on-year decline of 7.61%, indicating a return to more reasonable price levels [3][4]. - Properties priced below 3 million yuan accounted for over 70% of transactions, with nearly half of the sales in January 2026 being below 2 million yuan [2][4]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - The rental yield for certain older properties has increased, making them attractive for both living and investment purposes, with some areas showing yields as high as 3.0%, surpassing bank deposit rates [4][6]. - The current market is showing signs of a "bottoming" phase, with a significant reduction in the number of listings, indicating a shift in seller and buyer expectations [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - There is a growing belief that the market may transition from "price-driven volume" to "stable volume and price," with conditions for price stabilization gradually being met [5][6]. - The real estate policy is shifting towards stabilizing expectations and shortening adjustment periods, with potential demand release expected in March 2026 as new quality land parcels are introduced [6].