降价压力叠加竞争加剧，华尔街下调减肥药市场规模预期

Core Insights - The global weight loss drug market, previously expected to reach approximately $150 billion by 2030, is now facing uncertainty due to price reductions by major players Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, as well as increased competition in the out-of-pocket consumer market [1][2] - Analysts have revised their peak market size estimates down by about 30% for 2030, now projecting around $100 billion, with some institutions pushing the $150 billion target to 2035 [1][2] Group 1 - Analysts from Jefferies have lowered their peak market forecast by 20%, adjusting it from over $100 billion in 2030 to $80 billion [1] - Goldman Sachs has also revised its expectations, now predicting $105 billion in sales for obesity drugs by 2030, down from a previous estimate of $130 billion, citing increased price erosion and changes in consumer usage patterns [2] - The retail price of GLP-1 drugs has decreased significantly, with initial prices dropping to a range of $149 to $299 due to political pressure to lower drug prices in the U.S. [2] Group 2 - Some analysts remain optimistic about growth potential, with BMO Capital Markets projecting annual sales of GLP-1 drugs to reach $158 billion by 2033, with about $100 billion coming from obesity drugs, betting on volume growth to offset price declines [3] - TD Cowen analysts believe that if direct-to-consumer sales can compensate for price drops, their market size forecast of $139 billion could be revised upwards [3] - Morningstar analysts expect weight loss drug sales to likely exceed $100 billion, but anticipate that pricing pressures will bring revenue declines sooner than previously thought, with impacts expected in 2026 rather than 2027 [3]