Will Declining Medical Customers Affect Cigna's Q4 Earnings?

Core Insights - Cigna Group (CI) is expected to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 5, 2026, with earnings estimated at $7.87 per share and revenues of $69.9 billion, reflecting an 18.5% year-over-year increase in earnings and a 6.5% increase in revenues [1][2] Financial Performance - For the full year 2025, Cigna's revenue is projected at $270 billion, indicating a 9.3% year-over-year growth, while the EPS consensus is $29.63, signaling an 8.4% growth year-over-year [2] - Cigna has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of negative 1.8% [2] Earnings Predictions - The current Earnings ESP for Cigna is 0.00% with a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating uncertainty regarding an earnings beat this quarter [3] - The consensus estimate for pharmacy revenues shows a 12.2% improvement year-over-year, while fees and other revenues are expected to grow by 12.1% [4] Segment Performance - Revenues from the Evernorth Health Services segment are projected at $59.2 billion, reflecting a 10.1% growth from the previous year, with pre-tax adjusted income expected to increase by 1.9% [5] - The medical care ratio (MCR) is estimated at 87.21%, down from 87.90% a year ago [5] Challenges - Cigna is facing a projected 22.2% decrease in premiums year-over-year and a decline in total medical customers from 19.1 million to 18.1 million [7] - A decline in net investment income is anticipated, with a consensus estimate suggesting a 5.1% year-over-year decrease [8]