诺德基金姜禄彦：消费板块呈现企稳复苏态势

Core Viewpoint - Traditional consumption sector has undergone adjustments since 2023, with supply-demand structures gradually aligning and inventory depletion being relatively sufficient. Signs of recovery are expected to emerge from Q3 2025, with a potential revival in 2026 driven by policy support, cyclical patterns, and a low base effect [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Offline payment data from internet giants is expected to turn positive in Q2 and Q3 of 2025, with accelerated growth in Q3 [1] - The dining sector shows signs of recovery, with the turnover rate of leading hot pot brands narrowing its decline and stabilizing after August 2025 [1] - Major hotel groups have seen their Average Daily Rate (ADR) turn positive since September 2025, with a continuous narrowing of RevPAR decline [1] - Major airlines have experienced a narrowing decline in ticket prices, turning positive in September and maintaining growth in Q4 [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The consumption goods investment sector presents numerous structural investment opportunities in 2026, driven by new industrial trends such as hard discount retail, which offers lower prices through direct sourcing and reduced channel costs [2] - The snack category is highlighted as a strong candidate for hard discount models due to its impulsive consumption nature and high channel markup [2] - New product cycles are emerging as leading companies continue consumer education and product innovation, with significant scale effects expected from flagship products [2] Group 3: Alcohol Sector Insights - The alcohol sector exhibits a pyramid structure with clear brand positioning, indicating substantial market share growth potential for top-tier brands [3] - The demand for alcohol is expected to recover during the 2026 Spring Festival, with a likelihood of positive sales growth in the second half of the year due to a low base effect [3] - Leading alcohol companies are undergoing significant reforms at the cycle's bottom, focusing on product concentration and channel improvements, which are expected to enhance consumer reach and drive incremental demand [3] - Current valuations of leading companies are at historical lows, suggesting potential for performance and valuation recovery [3]