February stock trading: What the charts show about historical patterns

Core Insights - The article discusses the concept of seasonality in stock market returns, emphasizing that it reflects recurring patterns rather than definitive predictions [2][3] - Historical data from the S&P 500 since 1990 shows that January typically has a median return of 1.7%, while February has a lower median return of 0.8% [5][6] - The article highlights that March, April, and May generally see returns over 1%, with April and May having win percentages above 70% [6][7] Historical Performance - The analysis includes historical performance data from 1928, focusing on years where specific trading days match those of 2026 [8] - The trend indicates an upward movement into late April, followed by a dip in May, and a rally into early August, with another dip in late September [9] - The year typically ends with a sideways to upward trend, particularly strong in October through December [7][9] Volatility Insights - The VIX, or volatility index, shows that volatility starts the year at a median of about 19, decreasing to 15 currently, indicating lower volatility than historical averages [10][11] - Volatility tends to rise into mid-March, dip during summer, and peak in October and November, coinciding with significant market movements [11][12] - A reduction in volatility is observed towards year-end, aligning with a typical year-end rally in stock prices [13]