‘We’re not in a bubble yet’ because only 3 out of 4 conditions are met, top economist says. Cue the OpenAI IPO

Lamont’s bubble-detection framework relies on “Four Horsemen”: overvaluation, bubble beliefs, issuance, and inflows. While he conceded that three of these are present in the market of early 2026—valuations are high, retail investors are piling in, and sentiment is frothy—the absence of issuance disqualifies the current cycle from bubble status. In fact, it’s “baffling” that there aren’t more IPOs. “They haven’t come yet, and maybe they’re coming in 2026,” he said. In 1999, for instance, the market absorbed ...