美国“唱衰”美元影响如何

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's recent tolerance for a depreciating dollar signals a shift in its attitude towards the international value of the dollar, which could exacerbate its long-term decline and reshape global financial flows [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Government's Stance - President Trump indicated that he is not concerned about the dollar's depreciation, suggesting that he can manipulate its value, which raised concerns about potential currency manipulation [1]. - The government's stance aligns with a short-term strategy to enhance U.S. export competitiveness, consistent with Trump's "America First" economic logic [2]. Group 2: Structural Weakness of the Dollar - The dollar's current predicament stems from the erosion of its traditional support, including the independence of the Federal Reserve and the perception of U.S. Treasury bonds as risk-free [3]. - Increased government debt and the monetization of that debt have led to unprecedented doubts about the dollar's value, indicating a structural rather than cyclical decline [3]. Group 3: Changes in Global Financial Mechanisms - As the dollar enters a structurally weak phase, traditional financial transmission mechanisms will shift, leading to a more fragmented and volatile global market [4]. - Capital flows may diversify away from dollar assets towards alternative safe havens, such as gold and other major sovereign currencies, complicating monetary policy coordination among central banks [4]. Group 4: Implications for Non-Dollar Currencies - The structural weakness of the dollar does not simply benefit non-dollar currencies; major currencies like the euro and yen will face challenges in balancing capital inflows with export competitiveness [5]. - Emerging economies may experience reduced external debt pressures due to a weaker dollar, but they could also face volatility from capital flows, impacting asset prices [5]. - The U.S. government's strategy to leverage a weaker dollar for short-term economic gains risks undermining the dollar's credibility as a global public good, leading to a gradual decline in its dominance in global financial cycles [5].